The newspapers, both in the UK and the EU, are full of articles with regard to the Brexit-deal. The papers are following the developments closely, because a Brexit or, for that matter, a lack thereof, will have a huge impact on UK and EU citizens, and especially UK and EU companies and banks. Even though many developments have taken place in the past few weeks, the newspapers must still be followed closely during the next few weeks, since important critical developments will take place in those weeks.
The past few weeks and the next few weeks have been and will be nerve-wracking, mostly for Theresa May. The new phase in which a lot of developments have taken place in the past few weeks started with the agreement between the EU and the UK on May’s Brexit-proposal. The proposal is strongly opposed, among others by several cabinet members, such as “Brexit Minister” Dominic Raab. Two days after the agreement between the EU and the UK, Raab, and in total five other cabinet members, resigned. The unpopularity of the proposal also became apparent during the parliamentary session. In particular, the shadow minister for Brexit of the opposition Labour Party has indicated that his Party does not endorse the proposal.
Simultaneously to these developments, a fellow colleague of May, Jacob Rees-Mogg, sent in a letter containing a motion of no confidence against May. Rees-Mogg stated that the current leader’s Brexit deal “simply doesn’t work”. Rees-Mogg needs 47 supporters supporters his motion of no confidence come into force. That comes down to letters of 15 percent of May’s party members in the House of Commons. In case the number of needed letters will be met, the process of the motion will begin. However, May might survive the motion of no confidence. In that case, a new motion of no confidence may not be opposed against her in the next year. Therefore, the party members need to think of the consequences their letters would have. Despite all criticism to May’s Brexit proposal, May still believes in her proposal.
The concept of the Brexit proposal has been voted on by the leaders of the EU on 25 November 2018 in Brussels. The outcome of the voting is that 27 EU-leaders have accepted May’s Brexit-deal. After thorough discussions on the status of Gibraltar, this section has been erased from the concept agreement. The current Brexit-proposal still needs acceptance by both the European Parliament and the British Parliament. As can be deduced from the developments as described earlier described, there does not seem to be a majority in favour of this concept agreement in the British House of Commons.
It is apparent from a leaked document that the British House of Commons will vote on the Brexit-deal on Tuesday 11 December 2018. Prior to voting, five days of debate will take place about the Brexit-deal. The debates in the British House of Commons will start at 4 December 2018. The voting will be closely followed both by many UK citizens as well as by EU citizens. The United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union is currently scheduled for 29 March 2019.
Even if the Brexit-deal will be accepted by the House of Commons, 29 March 2019 will only be the start of a period of transition, which is scheduled to last until 1 January 2021. In any case, the coming few weeks will be very important with regard the “success” of May’s Brexit-deal.